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International agencies such as Interpol have for many years tried to raise awareness in the gaps and threats posed by stolen passports in particular. Coupled with the ever growing attempts to collect valid passports by illegal and false means, results in a significant number of international travellers or opportunities to move among the commercial travelling population. The chance of detection is also reduced when screening measures are not complied with or there are routine and regular lapses in verification systems. Those that use or exploit these vulnerabilities range from the frightened fleeing to the deadly en route. Successful Plans and Ideas: A catalyst for next generation threats A better prize always attracts a better quality and prepared competitor. So too does the world of criminal, violent or terror based threats.

Training and tactics have always been shared by these individuals and groups thanks to cultural ties, technology and even institutions where you end up with a concentration of like minded collaborators. But when any one or more of these groups are successful and their planning and tactics are then made public, a whole host of capable and prospective threats are free to pursue similar plans. We have seen this over the past decade, from the 9/11, Pakistan, Mumbai and Algeria type terrorism attacks that have taken place with each group learning and improving upon the last.

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Direct Impact and Likely Outcomes of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Aviation technology will face reed pressure for modernisation and upgrades. This will put economic burden on an already pressured industry and will likely drive some providers or services out of select markets as a result. Governments will also be pressured to regulate and spend in this area too but inconsistent international results will not close the gap or solve the problem in the next decade. This gap will remain a key vulnerability for competent and persistent threat groups. Aviation standards and risk metrics will be reviewed in light of the complete disappearance of an aircraft and the world’s inability to locate it within a timely manner.

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Some standards will be too onerous for some providers or markets, further increasing the gap between developed and emerging economies. No evidence of defect will no longer be considered as evidence of no defects by regulators and consumers. Buyers and consumers will change their spending habits for what they see or feel as better indicators for safety, security and risk management. Airspace management changes are needed. Ageing infrastructure, public/private expenditure will be demanded but with no direct cost recovery means for most.

Incidents, whether deliberate or accidental will continue to occur as with flight MH370 until effective change is implemented in this space. Transparency and admissions are likely to precede real change with traditional practices challenged. Self help monitoring and awareness has already started. Buyers and consumers are now more suspicious and actively seeking ways they can monitor or self help in the event of routine or emergency failures.

There is little collective trust or faith in the industry, evident in the individual applications and online portals that are already being utilised or referenced as a means of consumer transparency in the wake of perceived or government shortfalls or reluctancy to share. A cottage industry will accelerate in appealing to consumers and providing access to ‘behind the scenes’ data and information. trends and tactics for the future threat groups will include one or more areas of exploitation now publicly divulged in the Malaysia flight MH370 incident.

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